Week 4 Running Backs

Half-PPR scoring. Each player is projected from how much work he has been getting and what he does with it this season, with last season filling in early on, then adjusted for teammates ruled out, the point spread, the wind and the roof, and home field. Quarterbacks use two independent models blended together. Where the sportsbooks have posted a full line on a player, the projection leans mostly on it. The whole thing is tested against the last two seasons and graded every Tuesday on the scorecard. It orders players; it does not predict exact scores, and nobody's does. 23 of the 112 players here had a full sportsbook line at the time, and for them the projection leans mostly on it; the model-only version is graded beside this one every week on the scorecard. Nobody adjusts individual players by hand.