Fantasy Football · Week 1
Week 1 Team Defences
| Note | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | |||
| 1new to this list | SEA Defense | SEA | vs NE |
| 2new to this list | NE Defense | NE | at SEA |
| 3new to this list | LAR Defense | LAR | vs SF |
| 4new to this list | SF Defense | SF | at LAR |
| 5new to this list | CAR Defense | CAR | vs CHI |
| 6new to this list | CHI Defense | CHI | at CAR |
| 7new to this list | CIN Defense | CIN | vs TB |
| Tier 2 | |||
| 8new to this list | TB Defense | TB | at CIN |
| 9new to this list | DET Defense | DET | vs NO |
| 10new to this list | NO Defense | NO | at DET |
| 11new to this list | HOU Defense | HOU | vs BUF |
| 12new to this list | BUF Defense | BUF | at HOU |
| 13new to this list | IND Defense | IND | vs BAL |
| 14new to this list | BAL Defense | BAL | at IND |
| Tier 3 | |||
| 15new to this list | JAX Defense | JAX | vs CLE |
| 16new to this list | CLE Defense | CLE | at JAX |
| 17new to this list | PIT Defense | PIT | vs ATL |
| 18new to this list | ATL Defense | ATL | at PIT |
| 19new to this list | TEN Defense | TEN | vs NYJ |
| 20new to this list | NYJ Defense | NYJ | at TEN |
| 21new to this list | LAC Defense | LAC | vs ARI |
| Tier 4 | |||
| 22new to this list | ARI Defense | ARI | at LAC |
| 23new to this list | LV Defense | LV | vs MIA |
| 24new to this list | MIA Defense | MIA | at LV |
| 25new to this list | MIN Defense | MIN | vs GB |
| 26new to this list | GB Defense | GB | at MIN |
| 27new to this list | PHI Defense | PHI | vs WAS |
| 28new to this list | WAS Defense | WAS | at PHI |
| Tier 5 | |||
| 29new to this list | NYG Defense | NYG | vs DAL |
| 30new to this list | DAL Defense | DAL | at NYG |
| 31new to this list | KC Defense | KC | vs DEN |
| 32new to this list | DEN Defense | DEN | at KC |
Source: Model run 2026-09-12. A kicker is his own field-goal attempts scaled by how much offence Vegas expects from his team this week, times his own accuracy regressed toward the league's 84%, plus extra points, adjusted for the roof and the wind. A defence is its own sacks and takeaways plus the opponent's implied team total scored on the same points-allowed ladder the real result uses. Measured over 2024 and 2025 this ordering reaches a rank correlation of about 0.21 against what actually happened, where the running back rankings reach 0.73. That is more than twice the published expert consensus at defence (0.09) and still weak in absolute terms. Most of what it knows is who the defence is playing, not how good the defence is. MODEL OUTPUT, NOT YET REVIEWED.