Fantasy Football· Through week 7

Trends

Whose role is moving. For every player, his last two games are averaged and set against his earlier games, on the three things that stick week to week: how much he is on the field, his share of the team's work, and what his touches were worth. Surging is a role that grew on every axis and is now big enough to start.

From the weekly usage files · the model's own weighting puts about two thirds of a player's signal in his last two games, which is why that is the window · refreshes every Tuesday

Every number is before → now, per game. Now is the last two weeks (weeks 6 and 7); a player who did not play week 7 is left out. A red tag beside a name is today's roster designation: the usage was real, and he is hurt now. Before is every game he played earlier than those (weeks 1 to 5). Exp pts is what his touches were worth at average outcomes, the same number as the usage tables; Points is what he actually scored. 38 quarterbacks have three or more games.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Attempts
Kyler Murray MIN	MIN	10.3 → 15.6	7.2 → 16.1	23.7 → 27.0
Michael Penix ATL	ATL	12.2 → 17.4	13.7 → 21.8	25.7 → 33.5

Role up, points not yet

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Attempts
Sam Darnold SEA	SEA	11.7 → 17.3	12.4 → 12.5	24.5 → 39.5
Kirk Cousins LV	LV	14.8 → 20.1	18.5 → 19.4	34.4 → 42.5
Tyler Huntley BAL	BAL	10.8 → 16.1	14.1 → 14.3	20.5 → 32.5
Jordan Love GB	GB	17.9 → 22.2	18.0 → 18.6	37.0 → 43.0

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Attempts
Matthew Stafford LAR	LAR	20.3 → 12.6	17.8 → 17.2	43.2 → 31.0
Bryce Young CAR	CAR	22.6 → 15.6	22.6 → 12.6	40.5 → 33.0
Jameis Winston NYG	NYG	16.1 → 9.3	13.1 → 6.5	33.0 → 13.0
Baker Mayfield TB	TB	16.6 → 12.3	11.9 → 9.0	31.0 → 22.5

Did not play in week 7, so no trend either way: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Marcus Mariota, Trevor Lawrence, Tyson Bagent.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Carry share
Jonah Coleman DEN	DEN	0.0 → 8.9	0.0 → 10.6	6% → 45%	0% → 36%
Tyrone Tracy NYG	NYG	1.4 → 7.5	0.7 → 12.8	9% → 27%	5% → 24%
Braelon Allen Surging NYJ	NYJ	8.9 → 14.9	8.2 → 13.9	61% → 83%	48% → 74%
Tony Pollard Surging TEN	TEN	13.2 → 17.4	7.9 → 21.3	52% → 76%	64% → 83%
Samaje Perine CIN	CIN	4.0 → 8.0	2.9 → 11.2	34% → 37%	16% → 33%
Dameon Pierce PHI	PHI	10.7 → 14.7	2.2 → 12.2	77% → 80%	61% → 74%
Blake Corum LAR	LAR	6.7 → 10.4	7.0 → 14.8	28% → 36%	29% → 45%

Role up, points not yet

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Carry share
Ollie Gordon MIA	MIA	7.7 → 23.1	10.2 → 15.8	53% → 74%	39% → 57%
Bam Knight ARI	ARI	0.8 → 13.0	1.6 → 9.3	— → —	9% → 36%
Kendre Miller NO	NO	6.9 → 14.4	5.5 → 6.2	26% → 42%	35% → 50%
Kaelon Black SF	SF	4.7 → 10.7	2.9 → 7.3	27% → 35%	26% → 40%
Bucky Irving TB	TB	13.2 → 17.9	14.2 → 14.7	61% → 72%	57% → 63%
Woody Marks HOU	HOU	8.5 → 12.6	7.6 → 8.8	53% → 84%	37% → 68%
Tyler Allgeier ARI	ARI	7.1 → 10.3	5.7 → 5.8	52% → 52%	27% → 42%

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Carry share
Kyren Williams LAR	LAR	18.7 → 12.3	19.2 → 12.7	69% → 62%	56% → 46%
Saquon Barkley PHI	PHI	9.6 → 4.5	6.5 → 7.8	53% → 11%	51% → 18%
MarShawn Lloyd GB	GB	9.3 → 5.3	7.5 → 2.8	39% → 38%	41% → 32%
Ashton Jeanty LV	LV	19.1 → 15.6	14.7 → 15.7	72% → 65%	66% → 49%
Cam Skattebo NYG	NYG	13.4 → 10.0	10.1 → 12.4	65% → 60%	58% → 48%
Jonathan Taylor IND	IND	19.7 → 16.4	18.2 → 19.1	82% → 73%	75% → 63%

Did not play in week 7, so no trend either way: AJ Dillon, Ameer Abdullah, Austin Ekeler, Bhayshul Tuten, Breece Hall, Brian Robinson, Chris Brooks, Chris Rodriguez, CJ Donaldson, David Montgomery, De'Von Achane, Demond Claiborne, Dylan Laube, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jadarian Price, Jaleel McLaughlin, James Cook, Jeremiyah Love, Kaleb Johnson, Kaytron Allen, Keaton Mitchell, Kimani Vidal, Kyle Monangai, LeQuint Allen, Najee Harris, Omarion Hampton, Rachaad White, Raheim Sanders, Ray Davis, Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne, Travis Homer, Ty Johnson, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Badie, Will Shipley.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Omar Cooper NYJ11/12 catches	NYJ	1.0 → 8.9	3.5 → 19.6	7% → 73%	4% → 21%	11 of 12
Tre Tucker Surging LV10/19 catches	LV	8.6 → 13.4	8.5 → 21.5	66% → 76%	16% → 23%	10 of 19
Jameson Williams DET7/13 catches	DET	8.8 → 13.6	7.7 → 20.6	91% → 87%	16% → 22%	7 of 13
KC Concepcion Surging CLE12/16 catches	CLE	7.1 → 11.8	4.6 → 12.6	66% → 80%	20% → 27%	12 of 16
Ja'Marr Chase Surging CIN11/17 catches	CIN	9.8 → 13.9	12.4 → 15.7	76% → 88%	20% → 29%	11 of 17
Germie Bernard PIT14/17 catches	PIT	6.2 → 9.9	5.2 → 12.2	60% → 93%	15% → 23%	14 of 17
Makai Lemon PHI10/14 catches	PHI	5.1 → 8.7	3.6 → 9.8	70% → 86%	16% → 19%	10 of 14
Malik Nabers NYG19/24 catches	NYG	13.8 → 17.1	11.9 → 18.6	74% → 80%	27% → 34%	19 of 24

Role up, points not yet

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
CeeDee Lamb DAL14/30 catches	DAL	14.9 → 23.3	19.1 → 16.7	76% → 85%	27% → 40%	14 of 30
A.J. Brown NE6/16 catches	NE	4.2 → 12.4	4.1 → 5.3	44% → 84%	13% → 27%	6 of 16
Matthew Golden Questionable GB12/25 catches	GB	13.4 → 20.4	13.3 → 13.1	83% → 85%	24% → 31%	12 of 25
Adonai Mitchell NYJ6/15 catches	NYJ	4.9 → 10.3	7.5 → 4.7	69% → 63%	13% → 22%	6 of 15
DK Metcalf PIT13/21 catches	PIT	10.6 → 15.0	7.8 → 10.7	95% → 94%	21% → 28%	13 of 21
Malachi Fields NYG6/13 catches	NYG	5.2 → 9.5	5.1 → 6.6	72% → 84%	11% → 19%	6 of 13

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Puka Nacua LAR14/17 catches	LAR	22.0 → 10.7	20.8 → 14.4	82% → 88%	34% → 28%	14 of 17
Tetairoa McMillan CAR10/15 catches	CAR	15.4 → 9.6	15.4 → 8.8	87% → 72%	27% → 24%	10 of 15
Garrett Wilson NYJ6/9 catches	NYJ	11.3 → 5.5	14.2 → 5.0	90% → 92%	30% → 16%	6 of 9
Caleb Douglas MIA4/6 catches	MIA	9.7 → 4.3	11.9 → 11.4	91% → 77%	26% → 14%	4 of 6
Nico Collins HOU5/10 catches	HOU	13.6 → 8.2	17.7 → 5.5	71% → 70%	26% → 17%	5 of 10
Tee Higgins CIN8/11 catches	CIN	13.4 → 8.4	14.6 → 13.5	79% → 78%	25% → 19%	8 of 11
Chris Olave NO10/17 catches	NO	15.7 → 11.3	15.8 → 10.4	86% → 68%	28% → 25%	10 of 17
Luther Burden CHI12/12 catches	CHI	11.3 → 7.6	8.9 → 17.6	65% → 50%	22% → 19%	12 of 12

Did not play in week 7, so no trend either way: Antonio Williams, Ben Skowronek, Braxton Berrios, Brian Thomas, Calvin Ridley, Chris Moore, Dareke Young, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Derius Davis, DeVonta Smith, Devontez Walker, DJ Moore, Dontayvion Wicks, Dyami Brown, Emeka Egbuka, Greg Dortch, Isaiah Bond, Jakobi Meyers, Jared Wayne, Jaylin Lane, Josh Cameron, Josh Palmer, KaVontae Turpin, Keon Coleman, KhaDarel Hodge, Khalil Shakir, Ladd McConkey, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, Olamide Zaccheaus, Parker Washington, Pat Bryant, Quentin Johnston, Rashee Rice, Roman Wilson, Romeo Doubs, Ryan Miller, Simi Fehoko, Skyy Moore, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Tre' Harris, Treylon Burks, Tutu Atwell, Tyquan Thornton, Xavier Smith.

Moving up

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Colston Loveland CHI13/19 catches	CHI	6.4 → 13.2	3.5 → 15.9	85% → 86%	14% → 31%	13 of 19
Mason Taylor NYJ9/12 catches	NYJ	3.0 → 9.4	2.4 → 14.0	63% → 59%	12% → 21%	9 of 12
Kyle Pitts Surging ATL10/12 catches	ATL	4.0 → 9.3	4.4 → 15.6	56% → 67%	11% → 19%	10 of 12
Colby Parkinson LAR10/12 catches	LAR	2.6 → 7.1	1.1 → 9.4	64% → 66%	5% → 20%	10 of 12

Role up, points not yet

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
George Kittle SF13/18 catches	SF	8.1 → 13.4	12.3 → 13.1	72% → 90%	21% → 27%	13 of 18

Moving down

Player	Team	Exp pts	Points	Snaps	Target share	Catches
Sam LaPorta DET6/7 catches	DET	12.5 → 4.8	11.4 → 9.8	88% → 93%	19% → 12%	6 of 7
Juwan Johnson NO1/5 catches	NO	9.0 → 2.7	10.7 → 0.6	68% → 57%	17% → 8%	1 of 5
Brock Bowers LV10/17 catches	LV	15.6 → 11.6	19.7 → 9.7	77% → 91%	31% → 21%	10 of 17
Pat Freiermuth PIT4/7 catches	PIT	8.1 → 4.2	10.2 → 2.5	68% → 63%	15% → 11%	4 of 7
T.J. Hockenson MIN5/6 catches	MIN	8.5 → 4.9	9.1 → 6.3	76% → 40%	25% → 12%	5 of 6
Mark Andrews BAL4/7 catches	BAL	7.9 → 4.3	6.5 → 2.4	65% → 65%	23% → 11%	4 of 7

Did not play in week 7, so no trend either way: Ben Sinnott, Blake Whiteheart, Brayden Willis, Brenton Strange, Brock Wright, Cameron Latu, Charlie Kolar, Chig Okonkwo, Colson Yankoff, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Durham Smythe, E.J. Jenkins, Feleipe Franks, Foster Moreau, Hayden Rucci, Hunter Long, Jackson Hawes, Jake Briningstool, John Bates, Johnny Mundt, Josh Oliver, Keleki Latu, Luke Schoonmaker, Nate Boerkircher, Oronde Gadsden, Quintin Morris, Sam Roush, Tanner Hudson, Terrance Ferguson, Theo Johnson, Tyler Warren, Will Kacmarek, Zach Ertz.

How to read it

A trend is both halves moving: the role, measured as expected points from his touches, and the points that actually came. And it has to be a real role: at least seven expected points a game and fifteen percent of the team's targets or carries now, or twenty-five attempts for a quarterback, so a man who went from one target a game to three never makes the list. Rising is expected points up three or more a game with snaps or share up, and actual points up with them. Surging is the same but bigger, up four on expected, eight points of snap share and five of work share, now worth eight or more a game, whether the name is new or a veteran's, and it needs two games on each side, so nobody surges before week 4. Fading is the reverse.

Role up, points not yet is the honest third list: the touches grew and the points did not. That is either the buy-low case or a player who cannot hold onto the ball, and two games cannot tell you which, so this page does not call it a trend. Every row shows both sides of the comparison: Exp pts is expected points a game, what his touches were worth at average outcomes; Points is what he actually scored; Snaps and his share of the work are why it moved. When Points lags Exp pts by three or more a game, the points have not come yet. Nothing here moves a ranking. The rankings already weight recent games this way.