Fantasy Football · Week 1
Week 1 Kickers
| Note | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | |||
| 1new to this list | Nick Folk | ATL | at PIT |
| 2new to this list | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs ATL |
| 3new to this list | Cairo Santos | CHI | at CAR |
| 4new to this list | Jason Myers | SEA | vs NE |
| 5new to this list | Wil Lutz | DEN | at KC |
| 6new to this list | Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs BUF |
| Tier 2 | |||
| 7new to this list | Harrison Butker | KC | vs DEN |
| 8new to this list | Jake Elliott | PHI | vs WAS |
| 9new to this list | Daniel Carlson | NO | at DET |
| 10new to this list | Joey Slye | TEN | vs NYJ |
| 11new to this list | Matt Gay | LV | vs MIA |
| 12new to this list | Chase McLaughlin | TB | at CIN |
| Tier 3 | |||
| 13new to this list | Riley Patterson | MIA | at LV |
| 14new to this list | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs TB |
| 15new to this list | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs ARI |
| 16new to this list | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at NYG |
| 17new to this list | Andre Szmyt | CLE | at JAX |
| 18new to this list | Jake Moody | BAL | at IND |
| Tier 4 | |||
| 19new to this list | Chad Ryland | ARI | at LAC |
| 20new to this list | Blake Grupe | NYJ | at TEN |
| 21new to this list | Jake Bates | DET | vs NO |
| 22new to this list | Will Reichard | MIN | vs GB |
| 23new to this list | Cam Little | JAX | vs CLE |
| 24new to this list | Spencer Shrader | IND | vs BAL |
| Tier 5 | |||
| 25new to this list | Tyler Loop | BAL | at IND |
| 26new to this list | Andy Borregales | NE | at SEA |
| 27new to this list | Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | vs CHI |
| 28new to this list | Eddy Pineiro | SF | at LAR |
| 29new to this list | Harrison Mevis | LAR | vs SF |
| 30new to this list | Charlie Smyth | NO | at DET |
Source: Model run 2026-09-12. A kicker is his own field-goal attempts scaled by how much offence Vegas expects from his team this week, times his own accuracy regressed toward the league's 84%, plus extra points, adjusted for the roof and the wind. A defence is its own sacks and takeaways plus the opponent's implied team total scored on the same points-allowed ladder the real result uses. Measured over 2024 and 2025 this ordering reaches a rank correlation of about 0.17 against what actually happened, where the wide receiver rankings reach 0.64. That is roughly twice the published expert consensus at kicker (0.10) and still much closer to a coin flip than any other list on this site. Kickers are genuinely hard and nobody has solved them. MODEL OUTPUT, NOT YET REVIEWED.