Survivor

This week's five

odds as of Oct 28, 2026 · 10 sportsbooks averaged

Picks post Wednesday morning and refresh Saturday morning once the week's lines are in. A pick locks the moment its game kicks off and stays here with the result, win or lose. These are Wednesday's; Saturday's may reorder them.

1 Bengals vs Titans Sportsbooks' win chance 81% Why: you won't need them again
2 Jaguars vs Colts Sportsbooks' win chance 79% Why: hold them if you can — week 12 is thin and they're the best option in it
3 Patriots at Dolphins Sportsbooks' win chance 73% Why: hold them if you can — week 18 is thin and they're the best option in it
4 Cowboys vs Cardinals Sportsbooks' win chance 73% Why: hold them if you can — week 11 is thin and they're the best option in it
5 Rams vs Chargers Sportsbooks' win chance 72% Why: hold them if you can — week 10 is thin and they're the best option in it

The win chances come from the sportsbooks (10 of them, averaged, with their cut taken out). The line under each pick is ours: what using that team now costs you later in the season.

This week, in plain English

This is one of the easy weeks. The Bengals are at home against the Titans, they're the biggest favorite on the board at 81%, and using them now barely dents the rest of your season. When the safest team and the cheapest team are the same team, you take it and move on.

Prefer to hold the Bengals? The Jaguars are at home against the Colts at 79%, and the only cost is wanting them back in week 12. Below the top five this week you're either taking a worse number or burning a team you'll wish you had.

Tempting, but leave them alone: the Commanders (68% at home against the Eagles, but week 13 needs them). The Commanders at 68% today are the Commanders at 57% in week 13 — and you only get to use them once.

From here the road runs Seahawks in week 9, Bills in week 10, Bears in week 11, Jaguars in week 12, and on to week 18. That's a plan, not a promise — it gets redone every Wednesday and again on Saturday once the odds settle. Two things worth knowing: the win chances come from the sportsbooks, not us (10 of them, averaged, with their cut taken out), and what's ours is the order — which team to use in which week. And most pools are over by week 10. A good plan gets you there more often; nothing gets you there every time.

This note is written from the numbers each Wednesday and refreshed Saturday. Reynold hasn't changed a word of it.

Your season

Tell it which team you've used each week and it plans around them: your pick for this week, and a road to week 18. If your pool lets you sit one week out, say so and the plan spends the bye in the thinnest week it is allowed in. It stays on your phone; nothing is sent anywhere.

Start with the weeks already played — say which team you took in each. There are 7.

Bye week

Week 1Team you took in week 1
Week 2Team you took in week 2
Week 3Team you took in week 3
Week 4Team you took in week 4
Week 5Team you took in week 5
Week 6Team you took in week 6
Week 7Team you took in week 7
Week 8 this week
Take the Bengals vs the Titans — 81% to win. You won't miss them later.
Week 9plan: Seahawks vs Cardinals · 85%
Week 10plan: Bills at Jets · 79% · no line yet
Week 11plan: Bears vs Saints · 80% · no line yet
Week 12plan: Jaguars vs Titans · 88% · no line yet
Week 13plan: Broncos vs Dolphins · 85% · no line yet
Week 14plan: Lions vs Titans · 85% · no line yet
Week 15plan: Packers vs Dolphins · 76% · no line yet
Week 16plan: Vikings vs Commanders · 83% · no line yet
Week 17plan: Steelers at Titans · 77% · no line yet
Week 18plan: Texans vs Titans · 80% · no line yet

Saved on this phone or computer only.

How to use this

The short version. Take the number one pick. If you've already used that team, fill in your season above and take your number one instead.

Why we'd ever skip a favorite. You get each team once. A 78% favorite you spend today might be an 86% favorite in week 12, when nothing else is above 65%. So under every pick we say what it costs you later — "you won't miss them" or "hold them if you can." The five up top are the picks that buy the most safety today for the least of your season.

What it doesn't know. Who else is in your pool. In a big pool the smart pick is sometimes the one fewer people are on, because when a popular favorite loses, half the pool goes with it. That's coming; it isn't here yet.

How honest this is. We tested it on seven past seasons against the obvious strategy — "biggest favorite you haven't used yet." It survives about one percent more often per week, and that compounds. Real, and small. And no plan, ours or anyone's, made it past week 12 in more than one of those seven seasons. Lines move until kickoff, so the page refreshes Saturday morning. Every week gets graded on the scorecard, wins and losses alike.

Earlier weeks

How they did

Week	Our pick	Win prob	Also
Week 7	Texans vs Giants	80%	Vikings, Jets, Cowboys, Broncos
Week 6	Rams vs Cardinals	86%	Chiefs, 49ers, Patriots, Colts
Week 5	Cowboys vs Buccaneers	80%	Texans, Bengals, Jaguars, Lions
Week 4	Ravens vs Titans	85%	Vikings, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs
Week 3	Chiefs at Dolphins	83%	Seahawks, 49ers, Bills, Lions
Week 2	49ers vs Dolphins	87%	Buccaneers, Ravens, Rams, Eagles