Week 4 Kickers

A kicker is his own field-goal attempts, scaled by how much offense the sportsbooks expect from his team this week, times his own accuracy nudged toward the league's 84%, plus extra points, adjusted for the roof and the wind. A defense is its own sacks and takeaways plus the opponent's implied team total scored on the same points-allowed ladder the real result uses. Measured over 2024 and 2025 this ordering reaches a rank correlation of about 0.18 against what actually happened, where the wide receiver rankings reach 0.64 — about level with the published expert consensus at kicker, and much closer to a coin flip than any other list on this site. Kickers are genuinely hard and nobody has solved them. 25 of the 32 kickers here had a sportsbook kicking-points line at the time, and for them the projection leans mostly on it; the model-only version is graded beside this one every week on the scorecard. Nobody adjusts individual players by hand.