Week 2 Running Backs

Model run 2026-09-19, Half-PPR. Volume and efficiency from each player's 2026 games to date (nflverse), adjusted for team-mates ruled out on the official injury report, the point spread's effect on run/pass mix, forecast wind, the roof, and home field. Quarterbacks are a 50/50 blend of that model and a gradient-boosted forest trained on three seasons. Backtested on 2024 and 2025: it beats every simple baseline at all four positions. Early in a season it leans on last year, which fades within a game or two. It orders players; it does not predict their exact scores, and nobody's does. Published as the model produced it — Reynold has not gone through it line by line and has not overridden anything.