Fantasy Football · Week 7

The games

One card per game: when, the line and where it opened, who the books expect to win, what the weather is doing at kickoff, who is hurt, and which of our ranked players are in it. Weather is shown, not modeled: only wind moves a projection, and the lines already know the forecast.

Built Oct 27, 1:17 AM ET · lines the median of 8 sportsbooks · forecasts and alerts from the National Weather Service · refreshes with every rankings run

Other weeks: week 8 · week 6 · week 5 · week 4 · week 3

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Patriots at Bears

Final: Patriots 24, Bears 30

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Patriots

Injury report

Reggie Gilliam RB · IR

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 23% of dropbacks.

Our players

Drake Maye QB2 · tier 1
A.J. Brown WR18 · tier 1
Rhamondre Stevenson RB19 · tier 2
DeMario Douglas WR42 · tier 2
Hunter Henry TE13 · tier 2

Bears

Injury report

Kyle Monangai RB · Out

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.

Our players

Caleb Williams QB4 · tier 1
D'Andre Swift RB5 · tier 1
Luther Burden WR21 · tier 2
Rome Odunze WR32 · tier 2
Colston Loveland TE9 · tier 2

Sun 9:30 AM ET

Steelers at Saints

Final: Steelers 16, Saints 10

Line: Steelers by 5.5 · opened Steelers by 3.5
Total: 36.5 · opened 44.5
Implied: Saints 15.5 · Steelers 21
Win chance: Saints 27% · Steelers 73%

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Steelers

Injury report

Rico Dowdle RB · Questionable
Ben Skowronek WR · Out

How they play

Through 6 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3.7% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 22% of dropbacks.

Our players

Aaron Rodgers QB19 · tier 4
Jaylen Warren RB7 · tier 1
DK Metcalf WR20 · tier 1
Germie Bernard WR22 · tier 2
Pat Freiermuth TE11 · tier 2

Saints

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 20% of dropbacks.

Our players

Tyler Shough QB12 · tier 3
Chris Olave WR8 · tier 1
Devaughn Vele WR36 · tier 2
Juwan Johnson TE14 · tier 2
Kendre Miller RB36 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET

49ers at Falcons

Final: 49ers 20, Falcons 29

Line: 49ers by 2.5 · opened 49ers by 3
Total: 50
Implied: Falcons 23.8 · 49ers 26.3
Win chance: Falcons 43% · 49ers 57%

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

49ers

Injury report

Mike Evans WR · Out
Deebo Samuel WR · Out
Christian Kirk WR · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+2.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 22% of dropbacks.

Our players

Brock Purdy QB3 · tier 1
Christian McCaffrey RB3 · tier 1
George Kittle TE2 · tier 1
Christian Kirk WR61 · tier 3
Brandin Cooks WR63 · tier 3

Falcons

Injury report

Olamide Zaccheaus WR · Questionable
Brian Robinson RB · Out

How they play

Through 6 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-5.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 24% of dropbacks.

Our players

Michael Penix QB21 · tier 4
Bijan Robinson RB2 · tier 1
Drake London WR6 · tier 1
Kyle Pitts TE16 · tier 2
Jahan Dotson WR54 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game

Bengals at Ravens

Final: Bengals 35, Ravens 13

Line: Bengals by 3 · opened Ravens by 2.5
Total: 46 · opened 51
Implied: Ravens 21.5 · Bengals 24.5
Win chance: Ravens 42% · Bengals 58%

Bengals on 14 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Bengals

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 5 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+4.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.

Our players

Joe Burrow QB8 · tier 2
Ja'Marr Chase WR5 · tier 1
Tee Higgins WR14 · tier 1
Chase Brown RB26 · tier 2
Mike Gesicki TE25 · tier 3

Ravens

Injury report

Lamar Jackson QB · Out

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.9% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 24% of dropbacks.

Our players

Tyler Huntley QB15 · tier 4
Derrick Henry RB8 · tier 1
Zay Flowers WR13 · tier 1
Mark Andrews TE19 · tier 2
Ja'Kobi Lane WR64 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game

Buccaneers at Panthers

Final: Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13

Line: Panthers by 3
Total: 44.5
Implied: Panthers 23.8 · Buccaneers 20.8
Win chance: Panthers 59% · Buccaneers 41%

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Buccaneers

Injury report

Emeka Egbuka WR · Out
Baker Mayfield QB · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 18% of dropbacks.

Our players

Jalon Daniels QB27 · tier 6
Baker Mayfield QB18 · tier 4
Bucky Irving RB14 · tier 2
Chris Godwin WR29 · tier 2
Ted Hurst WR45 · tier 3

Panthers

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 5 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 18% of dropbacks.

Our players

Bryce Young QB9 · tier 2
Chuba Hubbard RB11 · tier 1
Tetairoa McMillan WR12 · tier 1
Jalen Coker WR17 · tier 1
Darren Waller TE21 · tier 2

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Giants at Texans

Final: Giants 27, Texans 21

Line: Texans by 10.5 · opened Texans by 10
Total: 42.5 · opened 43
Implied: Texans 26.5 · Giants 16
Win chance: Texans 80% · Giants 20%

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Giants

Injury report

Theo Johnson TE · Doubtful

How they play

Through 6 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-3.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 14% of dropbacks.

Our players

J.J. McCarthy QB28 · tier 6
Jameis Winston QB25 · tier 5
Malik Nabers WR10 · tier 1
Isaiah Likely TE5 · tier 1
Cam Skattebo RB35 · tier 3

Texans

Injury report

David Montgomery RB · Out
Graham Mertz QB · IR

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 23% of dropbacks.

Our players

C.J. Stroud QB6 · tier 2
Nico Collins WR11 · tier 1
Woody Marks RB15 · tier 2
Dalton Schultz TE18 · tier 2
Jawhar Jordan RB37 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Colts at Vikings

Final: Colts 10, Vikings 16

Line: Vikings by 7 · opened Vikings by 6.5
Total: 41.5
Implied: Vikings 24.3 · Colts 17.3
Win chance: Vikings 74% · Colts 26%

Vikings on 14 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Colts

Injury report

Tyler Warren TE · Out

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 17% of dropbacks.

Our players

Daniel Jones QB30 · tier 6
Jonathan Taylor RB9 · tier 1
Josh Downs WR31 · tier 2
Keenan Allen WR33 · tier 2
Will Mallory TE24 · tier 3

Vikings

Injury report

Jordan Mason RB · Questionable

How they play

Through 5 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 32% of dropbacks.

Our players

Kyler Murray QB14 · tier 3
Justin Jefferson WR15 · tier 1
Aaron Jones RB18 · tier 2
Jordan Addison WR39 · tier 2
Jordan Mason RB30 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game

Dolphins at Jets

Final: Dolphins 28, Jets 25

Line: Jets by 3.5 · opened Jets by 5
Total: 39.5
Implied: Jets 21.5 · Dolphins 18
Win chance: Jets 65% · Dolphins 35%

Dolphins on 14 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Dolphins

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 5 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-9.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 16% of dropbacks.

Our players

Malik Willis QB26 · tier 6
Ollie Gordon RB22 · tier 2
Malik Washington WR35 · tier 2
Caleb Douglas WR47 · tier 3
Greg Dulcich TE29 · tier 3

Jets

Injury report

Breece Hall RB · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 22% of dropbacks.

Our players

Geno Smith QB22 · tier 5
Breece Hall RB13 · tier 1
Braelon Allen RB16 · tier 2
Garrett Wilson WR19 · tier 1
Adonai Mitchell WR48 · tier 3

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Browns at Titans

Final: Browns 27, Titans 24

Line: Browns by 2 · opened Browns by 1.5
Total: 37 · opened 37.5
Implied: Titans 17.5 · Browns 19.5
Win chance: Titans 45% · Browns 55%

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Browns

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 27% of dropbacks.

Our players

Deshaun Watson QB10 · tier 2
Quinshon Judkins RB23 · tier 2
Denzel Boston WR27 · tier 2
KC Concepcion WR37 · tier 2
Audric Estimé RB31 · tier 3

Titans

Injury report

Tyjae Spears RB · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-3.9% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 21% of dropbacks.

Our players

Cam Ward QB29 · tier 6
Tony Pollard RB20 · tier 2
Carnell Tate WR26 · tier 2
Wan'Dale Robinson WR41 · tier 2
Michael Carter RB43 · tier 4

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Broncos at Cardinals

Final: Broncos 30, Cardinals 16

Line: Broncos by 4.5 · opened Broncos by 4
Total: 43.5
Implied: Cardinals 19.5 · Broncos 24
Win chance: Cardinals 34% · Broncos 66%

Broncos on 10 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Broncos

Injury report

Jonah Coleman RB · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.9% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 28% of dropbacks.

Our players

Bo Nix QB16 · tier 4
Jaylen Waddle WR24 · tier 2
J.K. Dobbins RB25 · tier 2
RJ Harvey RB28 · tier 3
Courtland Sutton WR43 · tier 2

Cardinals

Injury report

Jeremiyah Love RB · Out
Carson Beck QB · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 22% of dropbacks.

Our players

Jacoby Brissett QB17 · tier 4
Trey McBride TE3 · tier 1
Michael Wilson WR25 · tier 2
Tyler Allgeier RB27 · tier 3
Bam Knight RB33 · tier 3

Sun 4:25 PM ET · division game

Packers at Lions

Final: Packers 17, Lions 20

Line: Lions by 3.5 · opened Lions by 3
Total: 55.5 · opened 53.5
Implied: Lions 29.5 · Packers 26
Win chance: Lions 63% · Packers 37%

Lions on 14 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Packers

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 21% of dropbacks.

Our players

Jordan Love QB5 · tier 1
Christian Watson WR7 · tier 1
Matthew Golden WR9 · tier 1
Tucker Kraft TE4 · tier 1
Josh Jacobs RB21 · tier 2

Lions

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 5 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 26% of dropbacks.

Our players

Jared Goff QB1 · tier 1
Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 · tier 1
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3 · tier 1
Sam LaPorta TE6 · tier 1
Jameson Williams WR23 · tier 2

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Rams at Raiders

Final: Rams 35, Raiders 21

Line: Rams by 3 · opened Rams by 4
Total: 48.5
Implied: Raiders 22.8 · Rams 25.8
Win chance: Raiders 39% · Rams 61%

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Rams

Injury report

Puka Nacua WR · Questionable
Blake Grupe K · IR

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+1.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 16% of dropbacks.

Our players

Matthew Stafford QB11 · tier 3
Puka Nacua WR2 · tier 1
Kyren Williams RB6 · tier 1
Tyler Higbee TE10 · tier 2
Blake Corum RB29 · tier 3

Raiders

Injury report

Mike Washington RB · Questionable

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 26% of dropbacks.

Our players

Kirk Cousins QB20 · tier 4
Brock Bowers TE1 · tier 1
Ashton Jeanty RB12 · tier 1
Tre Tucker WR34 · tier 2
Michael Mayer TE20 · tier 2

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Chiefs at Seahawks

Final: Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20

Line: Seahawks by 3 · opened Seahawks by 2.5
Total: 42.5
Implied: Seahawks 22.8 · Chiefs 19.8
Win chance: Seahawks 58% · Chiefs 42%

Seahawks on 10 days' rest against 7.

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Chiefs

Injury report

Rashee Rice WR · Out

How they play

Through 5 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 18% of dropbacks.

Our players

Patrick Mahomes QB13 · tier 3
Kenneth Walker RB4 · tier 1
Xavier Worthy WR28 · tier 2
Travis Kelce TE8 · tier 2
Jalen Royals WR69 · tier 4

Seahawks

Injury report

Drew Lock QB · Questionable
Robbie Ouzts RB · IR
Zach Charbonnet RB · Out

How they play

Through 6 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-3.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 28% of dropbacks.

Our players

Sam Darnold QB23 · tier 5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 · tier 1
Emanuel Wilson RB24 · tier 2
AJ Barner TE22 · tier 3
Rashid Shaheed WR56 · tier 3

Mon 8:15 PM ET · division game

Cowboys at Eagles

Final: Cowboys 38, Eagles 21

Line: Cowboys by 4.5
Total: 44
Implied: Eagles 19.8 · Cowboys 24.3
Win chance: Eagles 34% · Cowboys 66%

Injuries, tendencies and the fantasy stakes

Cowboys

Injury report

Nobody of note on the report.

How they play

Through 6 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 17% of dropbacks.

Our players

Dak Prescott QB7 · tier 2
CeeDee Lamb WR4 · tier 1
Javonte Williams RB10 · tier 1
George Pickens WR16 · tier 1
Ryan Flournoy WR44 · tier 3

Eagles

Injury report

Dontayvion Wicks WR · Out
DeVonta Smith WR · Out
Saquon Barkley RB · Questionable
Tank Bigsby RB · IR
Grant Calcaterra TE · IR

How they play

Through 6 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 13% of dropbacks.

Our players

Tanner McKee QB24 · tier 5
Saquon Barkley RB17 · tier 2
Dallas Goedert TE7 · tier 1
Makai Lemon WR30 · tier 2
Darius Cooper WR38 · tier 2

How to read it

The weather strip is colored so you can read it before the numbers. Grey is a roof. Green is a day nothing needs saying about. Amber is worth a look: wind of 15 mph or more, a real chance of rain, or an active advisory at the venue. Red is rough: 20 mph wind, rain more likely than not, a warning from the Weather Service, or a hard freeze. The forecast is the kickoff hour at the stadium, and the alerts are the Weather Service's own, in their words.

Only wind changes a ranking. Rain was measured over two seasons and does cost points in a real downpour, but not in a way that reorders anyone against the field, and the sportsbooks' lines the rankings lean on already carry the forecast. So the strip is a tool for you, not a thumb on the model.

The line is the middle of what several sportsbooks posted, in the home team's favor when negative; "opened" is Wednesday's first pull, so a move is news the market priced since. Win chance comes from the moneylines with the books' cut removed, the same numbers the survivor tool uses. Our players are this week's ranked players from each side with their half-PPR projection and, where the books have a full line on them, the market's number. Nothing here is betting advice.