Fantasy Football · Week 5
One card per game: when, the line and where it opened, who the books expect to win, what the weather is doing at kickoff, who is hurt, and which of our ranked players are in it. Weather is shown, not modeled: only wind moves a projection, and the lines already know the forecast.
Built Oct 13, 1:17 AM ET · lines the median of 8 sportsbooks · forecasts and alerts from the National Weather Service · refreshes with every rankings run
Thu 8:15 PM ET
Final: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 16% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 16% of dropbacks.
Sun 9:30 AM ET
Final: Eagles 17, Jaguars 19
Through 4 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-5.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 11% of dropbacks.
Nobody of note on the report.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 23% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game
Final: Bears 7, Packers 31
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 26% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+1.7% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 22% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET
Final: Bengals 31, Dolphins 24
Nobody of note on the report.
Through 4 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+4.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 26% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-7.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 17% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET
Final: Raiders 17, Patriots 45
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 30% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (0% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 21% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET
Final: Vikings 23, Saints 13
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.9% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 35% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+1.7% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 20% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET
Final: Browns 12, Jets 17
Browns on 10 days' rest against 7.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+1.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 24% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 17% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET
Final: Colts 22, Steelers 34
Steelers on 10 days' rest against 7.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 21% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: throws more than the situation asks (+3.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game
Final: Texans 26, Titans 3
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.7% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 26% of dropbacks.
Nobody of note on the report.
Through 4 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-5.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 19% of dropbacks.
Sun 1:00 PM ET · division game
Final: Giants 27, Commanders 27
Through 4 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-7.6% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 12% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.7% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 19% of dropbacks.
Sun 4:05 PM ET · division game
Final: Broncos 23, Chargers 17
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-1.9% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-7% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 30% of dropbacks.
Sun 4:25 PM ET
Final: Lions 45, Cardinals 21
Nobody of note on the report.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.5% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 26% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.1% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 20% of dropbacks.
Sun 4:25 PM ET · division game
Final: 49ers 32, Seahawks 29
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+2.4% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 16% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-2.7% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 28% of dropbacks.
Sun 8:20 PM ET
Final: Ravens 30, Falcons 23
Through 4 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-3.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 21% of dropbacks.
Through 4 weeks: runs more than the situation asks (-8.2% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 22% of dropbacks.
Mon 8:15 PM ET
Final: Bills 37, Rams 34
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (-0.3% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 25% of dropbacks.
Nobody of note on the report.
Through 4 weeks: passes about as often as the situation asks (+0.8% pass rate over expected); the defense pressures the passer on 19% of dropbacks.
The weather strip is colored so you can read it before the numbers. Grey is a roof. Green is a day nothing needs saying about. Amber is worth a look: wind of 15 mph or more, a real chance of rain, or an active advisory at the venue. Red is rough: 20 mph wind, rain more likely than not, a warning from the Weather Service, or a hard freeze. The forecast is the kickoff hour at the stadium, and the alerts are the Weather Service's own, in their words.
Only wind changes a ranking. Rain was measured over two seasons and does cost points in a real downpour, but not in a way that reorders anyone against the field, and the sportsbooks' lines the rankings lean on already carry the forecast. So the strip is a tool for you, not a thumb on the model.
The line is the middle of what several sportsbooks posted, in the home team's favor when negative; "opened" is Wednesday's first pull, so a move is news the market priced since. Win chance comes from the moneylines with the books' cut removed, the same numbers the survivor tool uses. Our players are this week's ranked players from each side with their half-PPR projection and, where the books have a full line on them, the market's number. Nothing here is betting advice.