Fantasy Football · Week 4
The games
One card per game: when, the line and where it opened, who the books expect to win, what the
weather is doing at kickoff, who is hurt, and which of our ranked players are in it. Weather is
shown, not modeled: only wind moves a projection, and the lines already know the forecast.
Built Oct 6, 1:17 AM ET · lines the median of 7 sportsbooks · forecasts and alerts from the National Weather Service · refreshes with every rankings run
Worth a look: Broncos at 49ers.
Other weeks: week 8 · week 7 · week 6 · week 5 · week 3
How to read it
The weather strip is colored so you can read it before the numbers. Grey is a
roof. Green is a day nothing needs saying about. Amber is worth a look: wind of 15 mph or more,
a real chance of rain, or an active advisory at the venue. Red is rough: 20 mph wind, rain
more likely than not, a warning from the Weather Service, or a hard freeze. The forecast is the
kickoff hour at the stadium, and the alerts are the Weather Service's own, in their words.
Only wind changes a ranking. Rain was measured over two seasons and does cost
points in a real downpour, but not in a way that reorders anyone against the field, and the
sportsbooks' lines the rankings lean on already carry the forecast. So the strip is a tool for
you, not a thumb on the model.
The line is the middle of what several sportsbooks posted, in the home team's
favor when negative; "opened" is Wednesday's first pull, so a move is news the market priced
since. Win chance comes from the moneylines with the books' cut removed, the
same numbers the survivor tool uses. Our players are this week's ranked
players from each side with their half-PPR projection and, where the books have a full line
on them, the market's number. Nothing here is betting advice.