NFL
The Fantasy Stats I Trust — And the Ones I Don't
Fantasy points are the last thing that happens, not the first. The numbers I lean on, the ones I only read with context, and the ones that get you into trouble when you read them alone.
NFL
Who Actually Has the Ball
The model doesn't start with points. It starts with who is getting the work, how that has moved over the last few weeks, and how little it should trust the yards that came with it. Here is that layer, the idea I tested and left out, and what to do with it on a Sunday morning.