Fantasy Football · Week 1
Where Vegas disagreed
The published rankings lean on the betting market. The model also ranks every player on
its own, and the two are scored against each other every week. This is the gap between
them: the players Vegas moved furthest, up or down, from where the model alone had them.
137 of 172 ranked players had a line this week. Half-PPR. Updated Sep 12, 2026.
A positive move means the market likes him more than the model does.
QB RB WR TE Player Vegas Model alone Moved Joe Burrow CIN · vs TB #2 #14 ▲ 12 Lamar Jackson BAL · vs IND #4 #15 ▲ 11 Tyler Shough NO · vs DET #16 #26 ▲ 10 Brock Purdy SF · vs LAR #13 #4 ▼ 9 Patrick Mahomes KC · vs DEN #14 #6 ▼ 8 Jared Goff DET · vs NO #19 #11 ▼ 8 Cam Ward TEN · vs NYJ #25 outside top 32 ▲ 8 Jaxson Dart NYG · vs DAL #6 #13 ▲ 7 Kyler Murray MIN · vs GB #11 #17 ▲ 6 Jayden Daniels WAS · vs PHI #24 #18 ▼ 6
Player Vegas Model alone Moved Tyrone Tracy NYG · vs DAL outside top 48 #30 ▼ 19 Kimani Vidal LAC · vs ARI outside top 48 #31 ▼ 18 Bhayshul Tuten JAX · vs CLE #31 #47 ▲ 16 Chuba Hubbard CAR · vs CHI #29 #40 ▲ 11 Alvin Kamara NO · vs DET outside top 48 #39 ▼ 10 Kenneth Walker KC · vs DEN #16 #25 ▲ 9 David Montgomery HOU · vs BUF #24 #32 ▲ 8 Rico Dowdle PIT · vs ATL #25 #18 ▼ 7 Cam Skattebo NYG · vs DAL #18 #12 ▼ 6 J.K. Dobbins DEN · vs KC #30 #24 ▼ 6
Player Vegas Model alone Moved Jauan Jennings MIN · vs GB #60 #26 ▼ 34 Luther Burden CHI · vs CAR #28 #57 ▲ 29 Michael Wilson ARI · vs LAC #40 #20 ▼ 20 Justin Jefferson MIN · vs GB #11 #28 ▲ 17 DeVonta Smith PHI · vs WAS #17 #34 ▲ 17 Stefon Diggs WAS · vs PHI #47 #31 ▼ 16 Jaylen Waddle DEN · vs KC #27 #42 ▲ 15 Rome Odunze CHI · vs CAR #38 #24 ▼ 14 Josh Downs IND · vs BAL #42 #56 ▲ 14 Keenan Allen IND · vs BAL #55 #41 ▼ 14
Player Vegas Model alone Moved Darren Waller CAR · vs CHI #29 #13 ▼ 16 Michael Mayer LV · vs MIA #21 outside top 32 ▲ 12 Oronde Gadsden LAC · vs ARI outside top 32 #21 ▼ 12 Theo Johnson NYG · vs DAL outside top 32 #22 ▼ 11 Colston Loveland CHI · vs CAR #4 #14 ▲ 10 Isaiah Likely NYG · vs DAL #23 outside top 32 ▲ 10 David Njoku LAC · vs ARI outside top 32 #23 ▼ 10 Jake Ferguson DAL · vs NYG #20 #12 ▼ 8 Juwan Johnson NO · vs DET #9 #15 ▲ 6 Dallas Goedert PHI · vs WAS #10 #4 ▼ 6
Whether Vegas earned its place is answered on the scorecard , every
Tuesday, with the weeks it lost included.